8th April 2015 – Daily Currency Market Report.

The market in brief:

  • AUD up on the day
  • NZD drifts lower
  • Australian Retail Sales improve
  • RBA hold interest rates at 2.25%
  • UK Services sector picks up
  • Bank of England says prepare for Grexit
  • Gold at $1,208 & Brent Crude at $57.15

Market moving events for the next 24 hours:

  • Bank of Japan monetary policy statement
  • US Fed FOMC minutes

AUD-USD: The Australian Dollar got a timely boost to start the day with a solid pick up in Retail Sales figures; however the more sizeable move came with the announcement from the RBA that interest rates were held at 2.25%. Their comments that further rate cuts “might” be appropriate also supported the bullish sentiment. The push to recent highs was short lived however and we open today having held on to just 50% of the gains. This evenings minutes from the most recent US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is on market makers minds and any comments from them of a further delay to a hike in US rates should see the Aussie take off again. Technically we are in a medium term downward channel and need to push past initial resistance USD 1 cent above for a target of the highs seen the third week of March. Support targets for AUD buyers sits 120 points below. 

AUD-EURThe Euro has sunk as the market waits to see if Greece can settle the Euro 450 million debt repayment by tomorrows agreed cut off and as the bank of England has warned its major banks to prepare for Greece to leave the monetary union. The above and the RBA holding interest rate has the Euro back up at last week’s highs, although the move was muted with the political uncertainty. There is no major data due of any note from the EU this week, so we’ll continue to focus on Greece and the technical resistance levels that continue to cap 40 points above. 

AUD-GBPThe Pound also lost ground against its Australian counterpart despite a better than expected read in the UK Services sector. In fact the print was the best monthly read since September last year. The Bank of England meet tomorrow and we have Manufacturing data the day after, so cannot really see any move out of the recent range until those data events have passed. We therefore remain well and truly held in the downward channel and orders should be placed accordingly. Call for target levels. 

AUD-NZDThe Tasman cross opens the day over a NZD 1 cent above yesterday’s start as the RBA announcement ensured the interest rate differential stayed at 1.25%. With no data due from either centre until next week, we expect the lows to hold and conversely should only see another 75 points of upside until technical resistance is tested, but will hold. 

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