7th April 2015 – Daily Currency Market Report.

The market in brief:

  • AUD held in a range ahead of the RBA
  • NZD trends higher
  • AUDNZD at fresh all-time lows
  • US NFP disappoints
  • US Unemployment Rate stays at 5.5%
  • Gold up at $1,214 & Brent Crude at $57.75

Market moving events for the next 24 hours:

  • Australian Retail sales
  • Reserve Bank of Australia rate statement
  • UK Services

AUD-USD: The Australian Dollar has spent the last week held in a 170 point range and opens this morning at the lower end. The US Non-Farm Payrolls data came in at less than half the number expected, however the move higher for this pair was erased in Mondays trading. Focus will start today with domestic Retail Sales data, however the RBA’s interest rate statement will be key with the market largely split (12/20 say no cut) on whether rates will stay at 2.25%. As ever, with such a differing of opinion, whatever the result the reaction is likely to be volatile and anyone with currency exposure should have an order/s in the market.

AUD-EUR: The last few days has seen the Euro strengthen and take this cross down through longer term support that had been in play since mid-December and having firmly rejected technical resistance – as we forecast. The Greek Finance Minister has said they will repay Eur 450 million to the IMF, but other than that there has been no major economic EU data released of late and there is none due until next week, (although interestingly Spanish Unemployment has fallen sharply). We note a US investment bank has nonetheless called for EURUSD to hit 0.90 cents from the current 1.09 which if that occurs should push this pair higher, depending on the RBA’s actions of course. Price action in the meantime is mixed and may not set a new trend for a few days yet.

AUD-GBP: The Pound also continues to strengthen against the Aussie, pushing away from our technical resistance levels that we discussed prior to Easter. UK Services sector data is due this evening, so along with the RBA statement we are due a whippy next 24 hours. Later on in the week we have the Bank of England meeting and UK Manufacturing numbers, with the latter actually the more important given the central banks inaction. On the charts we are now in the middle of the longer term downward channel with both resistance and support over 100 points away.

AUD-NZD: The NZ Dollar has held most of Friday’s gains versus the US Dollar and has therefore seen the Tasman cross at lows never seen post the float. There is no NZ data due until next week, so direction will be dictated by Australian events. The Kiwis have the champagne on ice as today may well be the day we see exchange rate start with a 0 instead of a 1. However even if that does happen the time frame of the pair sitting down there is expected to be short and so should be taken advantage of.

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