29th October – Daily Currency Market Report

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The Market in Brief:

  • AUD down 1.5c this week
  • NZD lower but recovering
  • Australian inflation drops
  • FOMC hint at a Xmas hike
  • RBNZ keep rates on hold
  • Gold $1,156 & DJIA 17,785

Market Events Due:

  • Australian Import Prices
  • German Inflation
  • German Unemployment
  • Spanish Inflation
  • US GDP
  • US Weekly Unemployment Claims

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AUDUSD: The Australian Dollar is US$ 1 cent lower over the last 24 hours as domestic inflation figures disappointed and as the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC kept interest rates on hold, but gave a strong suggestion that they are prepared to move in December. US GDP figures this evening are our main focus and the last major data ahead of the RBA meet next Tuesday. We’ll have more on the latter in Monday’s report. On the charts we have hit trend line support and with the indicators suggesting we are in oversold territory we see potential for a grind higher today.

AUDEUR: Interestingly the FOMC comments have benefited the Aussie here as the Euro suffers elsewhere, (breaking through the psychological 1.10US$ level). The losses seen yesterday morning have been reversed although we are well off recent highs, but still attractive levels for importers.

AUDGBP: No such luck for domestic importers of UK goods as the Pound continues to go from strength to strength. There is no major data from the UK until next week so technically the support levels of the corrective short term upward channel may well hold for now. We do expect a break nonetheless and for the longer term downward trend to get back underway. A$1 = £0.40pence anyone?

AUDNZD: A NZ$ 2 cent move in the Tasman Cross over the last 24 hours as Australian inflation was weak and the RBNZ have held interest rates at 2.75%. Governor Wheeler did however war another cut to rates is likely should the Kiwi continue to strengthen. On the charts there is room for another 200 points of downside, but we should hold a tight range ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meet.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: He conquers who endures. Persius

ALTERNATIVE CURRENCY HEDGING: Ask us about a great alternative to traditional forward contracts that give the ability to cover at attractive levels, but with the flexibility to walk away should the spot rate improve or the contract not be required. 

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Jim Devonport

Corporate & HNW Client Manager 

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