30th July – Daily Currency Market Report

The market in brief:

  • AUD lower
  • NZD lower
  • German Consumer Sentiment stable
  • UK Lending up
  • UK CBI Sales down
  • US pending Home sales down
  • US FOMC on hold
  • Gold at $1,097 & DJIA 17,755

Market moving events due:

  •   RBA Gov Stevens speaks
  •   Australian Building Approvals
  •   German Inflation
  •   Spanish Inflation
  •   German Unemployment
  •   US GDP
  •   US Weekly Unemployment Claims

AUDUSD: The Australian Dollar pulled back from the SSE inspired highs yesterday as there was no domestic economic data and as the market awaited the FOMC meet. The US central bank kept rates on hold as expected and suggested any rate hikes will be gradual, but importantly gave no reason for us to adjust the thoughts of a move in September. RBA Governor Stevens speaks this morning and we then have domestic building data. On the charts and our forecast resistance held and we favour that continuing this week with the recent lows also supporting.

AUDEUR: As forecast yesterday, this pair has traded in a relatively tight range as we had no major data from Europe and whilst attention was focused the other side of the Atlantic. However price action may pick up with a number of European numbers tonight and tomorrow. On the charts and we are testing the neck line of a head and shoulders pattern that if breaks could well see higher ground. We’ll know more at the start of next week.

AUDGBP:  Our favoured push lower eventuated yesterday as the general positive sentiment towards the Pound carries on, despite mixed second tier data. There is nothing of note expected from the UK for the rest of the week so we favour the recent range to hold and an eventual break to the downside to come near term.

AUDNZD: An up day for this pair, for the first time in a week and a half as hard commodities recovered and as a larger than normal amount of NZ Corporates were seen repatriating AUD receipts. Australian fundamentals will determine direction for the next 48 hour and if all are as expected then these general support levels should hold firm. Famous last words.

Quote of the day: Trust your hunches. They’re usually based on facts filed away just below the conscious level. Joyce Brothers 

Alternative Currency Hedging: Ask us about a great alternative to traditional forward contracts that give the ability to cover at attractive levels, but with the flexibility to walk away if the rate improves or if not required.

 

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