26th March 2015 – Daily Currency Market Report.

The market in brief:

  • AUD fails to break fresh highs so drifts lower
  • NZD also down on the day
  • NZ Trade Balance disappoints
  • German Business Sentiment at 8 month highs
  • US Durable Goods weaker
  • Gold at $1,188.50 & Brent Crude at $55.14

Market moving events for the next 24 hours:

  • German Consumer Sentiment
  • UK Retail Sales
  • US Weekly Unemployment Claims

AUD-USD: The Australian Dollar failed in its latest attempt to break into higher ground, as forecast yesterday, so congratulations to those importers that took our message on board and jumped on the highs that were at such firm technical resistance. The subsequent move lower came despite a weaker read in US Durable Goods and may simply have been a correction lower before another try at resistance again. With no major data due until tomorrows US GDP, followed by Fed Chairwoman Yellen’s speech, we cannot see any reason for the recent highs to break for another 36 hours at least. Exporters may want to consider these lows and importers place orders 75 points above.

AUD-EUR: The Euro strengthened on the back of a 5th straight month of positive German Business Confidence data and as we have not heard of any fresh discord in the talks between the Greeks and Germans. There is no further data expected from the EU until next week so we cannot see any reason for this pair to break resistance that has capped for so long. However the overall weaker tone of the Euro still remains so exporters may look at these lows to repatriate some funds. If not paid for already, importers invoices may need to be put back in the “in” tray to be sent through to us next week instead.

AUD-GBP:  Sterling has also recovered back to trade at the lows seen on Tuesday morning. There was no fundamental reason behind the move, simply that GBP buyers with AUD receipts were taking advantage of the sudden rally. UK Retail Sales are due this evening and expected to show a pickup in activity there. Technically our trend line resistance that we discussed yesterday held firm and is still in play so sees resistance 50 points above, should the overnight selloff be reversed. We continue to favour a medium top has been put in place and importers would still do well looking at these levels considering here we were last month.

AUD-NZD: A volatile 60 point range for the Tasman cross following disappointing Trade Balance numbers from NZ. Nonetheless the range has held and we sit comfortably within weeklong gentle upward channel. With no Antipodean data due until next week the said range should hold firm, giving ample opportunity for both sides of the market.

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