24th March 2015 – Daily Currency Market Report.

The market in brief:

  • AUD up at 2 month highs
  • NZD at levels not seen since 3rd week of January
  • AUDNZD hits fresh all-time lows
  • US FOMC’s Fisher dampens talk of rate hikes
  • Gold at $1,190 & Brent Crude Oil at $55.80

Market moving events for the next 24 hours:

  • Chinese HSBC Manufacturing
  • French Manufacturing
  • German Manufacturing
  • UK Inflation
  • US Inflation

AUD-USD: The Australian Dollar has hit highs that have held since late January, having rallied 130 points overnight. The catalysts was US Federal Reserve FOMC Vice Chairman Fischer stating that the “Fed will most probably hike rates by the end of the year”. This goes against what the market had to be a certain rate hike as early as Q3’15. Looking ahead we have Chinese and US numbers over the next 24 hours and so we expect the volatility continue. The big question is whether the currency can push through strong resistance that has capped since late January. Should it do so then resistance sits another 100 points above, however importers shouldn’t get too greedy considering we were 350 points below these levels just 2 week ago. Exporters can look to target corrections 50+ points below.

AUD-EUR: Another volatile but ultimately directionless session. Both currencies traded higher against the US Dollar as the market chased the Australian yield on offer and as the Greek debt situation appears to be getting resolved. French and German Manufacturing data may cause a few blips this evening, however we cannot see a break of the range happening this week.

AUD-GBP:  The Pound has lost further ground against the Aussie as funds flow back into Europe from the UK. UK inflation data this evening is expected to show another benign and so we cannot see any great chance of a pullback in this pair any time soon. Technically the upward channel has been broken and the top side of that now acts as support. Medium term now targets the 50% retracement of the downward move seen since September last year and sits 100 points above.

AUD-NZD: The Tasman cross dipped to a fresh all time low gain, however solid demand saw those levels picked up and we closed flat on the day. NZ Trade Balance data is due tomorrow, so until then we see these levels holding.

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