23rd October – Daily Currency Market Report

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The Market in Brief:

  • AUD hits 2 week lows
  • NZD pushes higher
  • Australian Business Confidence drops
  • Spanish Unemployment now just 21.2%
  • UK Retail Sales up
  • ECB suggests further QE
  • US Weekly Unemployment Claims down
  • Gold $1,166 & DJIA 17,493

Market Events Due:

  • French Manufacturing
  • German Manufacturing
  • EU Manufacturing

 

 

 

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AUDUSD: The Australian Dollar fell from recent highs as Santos rejected a takeover bid, Business Confidence has evaporated, ANZ report commodities are set to fall and as the market sees a 70% chance of a rate cut by Q1’16. However the lows were bought into and we continue to hover around the 50% retracement of the 4 month range, as forecast, until next week’s FOMC meet.

AUDEUR: Our hoped for “definitive” comments over QE from the ECB has this pair markedly higher. President Draghi was decidedly dovish and said they would revisit the stimulus levels at the next meeting. We have pushed up through technical resistance that has held since April and appear set on the way to our target that now sits 100 points above. There may well be a short term correction as the market jumps on these higher levels, so we’d suggest Euro buyers act swiftly.

AUDGBP: MoM UK Retail Sales grew at their fastest rate in 2 years, however the prior months read was revised sharply lower and so negated any gains for the Pound. In fact with negative inflation and the prospect of further QE in Europe Sterling did take a knock overnight but sits well below last week’s highs. The downward trend should continue.

AUDNZD: The Australian negativity detailed above gave reason for the cross to retrace to 5 month lows. There is no NZ data due until next week and with a bank holiday on Monday we see a recovery throughout today.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: Much effort, much prosperity. Euripides

ALTERNATIVE CURRENCY HEDGING: Ask us about a great alternative to traditional forward contracts that give the ability to cover at attractive levels, but with the flexibility to walk away should the spot rate improve or the contract not be required. 

 

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Jim Devonport

Corporate & HNW Client Manager 

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