21st October – Daily Currency Market Report

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The Market in Brief:

  • AUD holds the range
  • NZD sinks
  • “Neutral” RBA minutes
  • US Building Permits drop
  • NZ Dairy Trade Price drops
  • Gold $1,176 & DJIA 17,208

Market Events Due:

  • BoE’s Gov Carney speaks
  • Bk of Canada interest rate statement

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AUDUSD: The minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting gave no suggestion that interest rates are to be cut in the near future here, so that and the recent Chinese data ensured the Australian Dollar held firm. The Chinese figures and positive data from the US has however kept the market guessing as to whether the FOMC will move interest rates at the end of the month. We therefore remain in the flag formation and should hold around these levels for the next few days at least.

AUDEUR: Has tested support levels as ECB member Noyer suggested there is no need to add to the €60 billion a month quantitative easing program. However thoughts are that they may start to pave the way for additional funding in tomorrow’s meeting. On the charts we’d suggest support at the overnight lows holds and this pair drifts higher as Euro sellers take advantage down here.

AUDGBP: Has taken back some of its recent losses as the market continues to digest the weak inflation figures that will surely delay an interest rate hike until Q2’16+. Governor carney did not mention interest rates in last night’s speech, but is expected to do so tomorrow and which is when we also have UK Retail Sales data. We should hold around this morning’s opening levels for the next 36 hours.     

AUDNZD: As forecast yesterday, the Tasman Cross has rallied over a cent to a 1 week high. The move came as NZ Dairy Prices fell over the last fortnight and as the technical support of the 50% retracement of the 6 month range held. There is no NZ data due until next week, so we’d expect the trend of a grind higher to continue with the recent lows as firm support and an immediate target 50 points above.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: People may hear your words but they feel your attitude. John C. Maxwell

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Jim Devonport

Corporate & HNW Client Manager 

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