The market in brief:
- AUD opens at 3 month highs
- NZD up 1 cent on the day
- No signals of a rate cut from Gov Stevens
- UK GDP disappoints
- US Consumer Confidence drops sharply
- Greek PM sees EU deal next week
- Twitter and Apple shares fall
- Gold down at $1212 & Brent Crude at $64.50
Market moving events due:
- NZ Trade Balance
- NZ Business Confidence
- Japanese Bank holiday
- US GDP
- US FOMC meet
AUD-USD: The Australian Dollar has rallied 160 points over the last 24 hours as RBA Governor Stevens gave no clues to an imminent interest rate cut, whilst the US Dollar suffers on the back of weaker than expected data and lower corporate earnings. A Japanese bank holiday should see a quieter session, especially as we wait for important US data and the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meet in the early hours of tomorrow morning. On the charts we have hit the wall of resistance that has capped since late January and cannot see any further gains for this session. Any dovishness from the FOMC however and we could easily be headed towards the highs of mid Jan 2.5 cents above.
AUD-EUR:This pair opens at 2 year highs that have failed to break on several occasions. There was no data from mainland Europe however the Greek PM said that they are working towards an agreement that should be finalised next week. There is also no data this evening; although the market is more likely to react to any further comments. On the charts and it can’t get any better than this for importers as the strong resistance is unlikely to break ahead of a final decision on Greece’s future and of course the RBA meet next month.
AUD-GBP:The Pound is back at 1 week lows and hit our forecast resistance as the UK economy expanded at its slowest pace since 2012. There is no data set to come from the UK today and in fact none until Friday’s Manufacturing number, but when that comes we’ll have one eye on the UK elections exactly a week later. On the charts we have hit the top of the longer term pennant that has been in play since November and we cannot see reasons for any further gains just yet. Importers can get in touch now, whilst exporters may wait till later in the week for their chance.
AUD-NZD: The Tasman Cross pushed another 100 points higher, as we have suggested for the last couple of days, due to the chances increasing of the respective countries interest rate differential narrowing. Today sees NZ Trade Balance and Business Confidence data and both are expected to show signs of improvement so those looking to buy the Aussie with Kiwi Dollars should get their chance later this morning. Moves may be muted however as we have the RBNZ tomorrow and we’ll look for signs of any agreement to the comments of late last week. Our view of higher levels remains nonetheless and our initial target is now just 100 points above.
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