19th September 2016 – Weekly Currency Market Report.



The Market in Brief:

                              • AUD down against USD, JPY and CHF
                              • AUD up against GBP, CAD and flat V EUR and NZD
                              • CNY Industrial Production at 6.3% V expected 6.2%.
                              • AUD Unemployment -3,900 but unemployment drops to 5.6%
                              • GBP down on talk of Article 50 being triggered re BREXIT in Feb 2017
                              • USD up after CPI increased 1.1% over the past 12 months

Market Events Due:

                            • AUD RBA Sept Meeting Minutes (Tue) and new RBA Governor Lowe speaks (Thur)
                            • JPY BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and Governor Kuroda speak
                            • EUR ECB President Draghi speaks
                            • GBP BOE Governor carny speaks
                            • USD Building Permits (Tue) FOMC Statement and Fed funds rate, Yellen speaks, Unemployment claims (Thur)

REFERRALS: Client referrals are a very important part of our business. If you know of any contacts that could benefit from our comprehensive range of international currency transfer services, please do let me know. 

AUDUSD: The AUD had its second consecutive down week against the USD, closing 0.6% lower. Whilst unemployment numbers were -3,900 v expected +15,200, the unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.6%. US data was mixed with the market pricing only a 12% chance of a rate hike this Wednesday but a 55% chance in December. This saw the USD outperform the majors with the exception of the JPY.  AUD hit a fresh 7 week low last Tuesday but support held there for 3 days and it managed to rally 50 points.The solid medium term resistance is still 200 points higher.

AUDEUR: Whilst closing the week almost flat the AUD managed to claw back its losses after being down almost 1.5% earlier in the week. There is short term resistance here for the AUD and a break of these levels could see it test the highs of 2 weeks ago. Those looking to convert EUR back can target the 10 week low we saw last week. 

AUDGBP: AUD posted its first up week after 4 consecutive down weeks against the GBP. At one stage AUDGBP posted a fresh 10 week low against the GBP before rallying 2.6% in 2 days. This gives importers their best levels in 7 trading days while exporters can target the lows we saw last week.

AUDNZD: Whilst closing the week almost flat, at one stage last week the AUD hit a fresh 17 month low against the NZD. Well done to those who converted their Kiwi back. AUD has only rallied 75 points over the last 3 days which still represents a great opportunity for those looking to convert NZD. The last time AUD was down here it had a very strong rally in a short period of time.

AUDJPY: The AUD closed the week down 1% against the JPY which was the best performing currency for the second consecutive week. The support levels that have held for the last 6 weeks held firm. Resistance still a lofy 200 points higher. 

AUDCHF: AUD closed the week only 15 points lower against the CHF and is down for the second consecutive week. It’s sitting in the middle of a range that has held for the last 7 months.

Compass Global Markets Team.



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