19th October – Daily Currency Market Report

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The Market in Brief:

  • AUD pushes lower
  • NZD closes up for the week
  • NZ Inflation beats expectations
  • EU Inflation lower
  • US Industrial Production down
  • US Consumer Sentiment up
  • Gold $1,177 & DJIA 17,208

 

Market Events Due:

  • Chinese GDP
  • Chinese Industrial Production
  • German BUBA monthly report

 

 

 

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AUDUSD: Finished the week on the back foot again as mixed US data kept the market guessing as to timing of the first US Fed rate hike. Chinese data this morning will be important, along with tomorrows RBA minutes and perhaps our main focus for the week. On the charts we sit on medium term support having printed a series of higher lows and lower highs. A break of support at this morning’s opening levels or resistance 50 points above determines direction.

AUDEUR: Another dip in EU inflation kept this pair well contained on Friday. Focus turns to the ECB meeting on Thursday and so we’ll expect this range to be held until then. Interestingly we sit just shy of resistance that comes from the highs of April and if broken should see a 150 point move higher as a minimum.

AUDGBP: Has spent most of last week giving up gains made at the start of the month. A speech by the BOE’s Carney tomorrow and UK Retail Sales on Thursday are our focal points. Technically we seem set to test support 50 points below and we’ll need that to hold for any hope of another look to the top side.

AUDNZD: Continues to push even lower as the market starts to see an end to the RBNZ’s interest rate cuts. Therefore Tuesday night’s Global Dairy Trade Price number takes on even greater significance. On the charts support should hold here, as it did in May.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: A desk is a dangerous place from which to view the world. John Le Carre. (Born this day 1931)

ALTERNATIVE CURRENCY HEDGING: Ask us about a great alternative to traditional forward contracts that give the ability to cover at attractive levels, but with the flexibility to walk away should the spot rate improve or the contract not be required. 

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Jim Devonport

Corporate & HNW Client Manager 

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