19th November – Daily Currency Market Report

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The Market in Brief:

        • AUD tests lower but recovers
        • Mixed second tier Australian data
        • US Building Permits up
        • Most FOMC members favour December
        • Gold $1,070 & DJIA 17,731

Market Events Due:

    • NZ Producer Prices
    • BoJ meet
    • UK Retail Sales
    • US Weekly Unemployment Claims
    • US Philly Fed Manufacturing 

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AUD/USD: A 4.5% drop in iron ore prices pulled the A$ lower and in line with the firm downward channel. However a release of the FOMC minutes that was not as hawkish as some had expected ensured the local currency bounced off its lows. Expect a quiet day today as we wait for US data this evening. Technically the channel should hold.

AUD/NZD: The weaker dairy prices continue to increase thoughts of another RBNZ rate cut next month and has ensured more upside for this pair. There is no further NZ data set to come this week so we expect price action to hold these levels if not push higher.   

AUD/GBP: A weaker A$ and an upbeat speech by MPC member Broadbent pulled this pair slightly lower. Tonight’s UK Retail Sales numbers are the last major release of the week and as they are expected to be poor, this should see this pair recover recent losses.

AUD/EUR: A flat close following a small recovery in the Euro. Sentiment is still weak on the European mainland and we’ll look towards the ECB minutes this evening and a speech by President Draghi tomorrow. Overall the upside is our favoured direction.

ALTERNATIVE CURRENCY HEDGING: Ask us about a great alternative to traditional forward contracts that give the ability to cover at attractive levels, but with the flexibility to walk away should the spot rate improve or the contract not be required.

 

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Jim Devonport

Corporate & HNW Client Manager 

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