17th March 2015 – Daily Currency Market Report.

The market in brief:

  • AUD trades a tight range ahead of an important few days to come
  • NZD edges slightly higher
  • Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales increase
  • US Manufacturing slows
  • US Industrial Productions dips
  • Gold down to at $1,153 & Crude at 6 year lows of $43

Market moving events for the next 24 hours:

  • RBA monetary Policy meeting minutes
  • Bank of Japan meet
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey
  • US Building Permits
  • NZ Global Dairy Trade price

AUD-USD: The Australian Dollar was held in a tight 70 point range as the market awaits the RBA minutes this morning and we look to the FOMC meeting later in the week. The Aussies performance was remarkable considering the weakness in commodities and therefore underlines the importance of today’s central bank minutes as we wait to hear their reasoning for not cutting interest rates. On the charts we sit USD 1 cent away from resistance and support and with a 50/50 chance of hitting either, so suggest anyone with US Dollar exposure place orders to take advantage of this expected volatility.

AUD-EUR: The Euro strengthened overnight as a general bout of US Dollar weakness combined with our forecast technical resistance level that has held for the long term. ECB President Draghi had some positive words to say and we have a major German economic sentiment survey due this evening that is expected to show signs of improvement. The above means we’ll continue to bang the drum and strongly suggest those looking to buy Euros target these levels, or at least look at our alternative currency hedging products that offer a non-obligatory solution.

AUD-GBP:  Sterling benefited the more from the US Dollar sell off and saw the Aussie Pound cross trade back towards the bottom of the 48 hour range. There is no major data out of the UK until tomorrow night, so todays RBA minutes will have an exaggerated effect. Technically we have rejected the highs that coincided with the top of the short term upward channel, so unless we have any major surprise domestically then we may well see further lows as we move on throughout the week.

AUD-NZD: With harder commodity prices dropping and the markets thoughts that RBA Governor Stevens may pave the way for a near term rate cut in todays communique, the Tasman cross has dipped 50 points. NZ dairy price data is due this evening and NZ GDP on Thursday, both of which are not expected to show huge upturns. We therefore see support 80 points below holding and for a look higher, should Australian fundamentals support

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