17th April 2015 – Daily Currency Market Report.

The market in brief:

  • AUD marches higher
  • NZD up as well
  • Australian Unemployment Rate drops to 6.1%
  • US Building Permits slow
  • US Weekly Unemployment Claims increase
  • US Philly Fed Manufacturing improves
  • G20 Meetings
  • Gold $1,203 & Brent Crude at $63.10

Market moving events for the next 24 hours:

  • UK Average Earnings
  • UK Unemployment Change
  • US Inflation
  • US Consumer Sentiment

AUD-USDThe Australian Dollar has closed higher for the third straight session on a continuation of weaker US economic data and as Australian Unemployment caught the market by surprise, dropping to 6.1% from 6.3%. Adding fuel to the fire was a sharp upward revision to last month’s employment number. As mentioned yesterday, the market is coming to the realisation that the US Fed won’t hike rates in June, unless there is a sharp reversal in the near term economic fundamentals. On the charts and we still have over USD 1 cent of potential upside, however we may not see that in our time frame, but it makes sense for importers to place orders at the recent highs. Exporters may also get their turn, should tonight’s US data improve and with the weekend square up.    

AUD-EURThis pair rallied on the domestic unemployment news and even into early European trading. Price action was volatile but near enough flat for the rest of the session as the market reacted to Greece’s debt rating downgrade, its borrowing costs rise to 27% and as the German Finance Minister said Greece would not get any help from outside the EU. A thinly veiled comment to the Greek PM’s recent visit to Russia. On the charts and we are still very much hemmed in by the near 2 year highs and likely to stay that way medium term.  

AUD-GBPA similar pattern here as with the Euro. A sharp rally on the back of the domestic data, then a volatile but otherwise aimless session throughout the rest of the day. UK data this evening should prove interesting and does have the potential to move the market. Technically our previously discussed pennant formations holds firm with lower highs and higher lows, suggesting a sizeable breakout within the next 2-3 weeks. Perhaps just as the Conservatives get re-elected once again with UKIP by their side on the 7th May…

AUD-NZDThe Tasman cross pushed up to highs not seen since the start of the month as Australian unemployment data put a dent in some analysts thoughts of an interest rate cut from the RBA next month. As has been the case any sizeable move away from the tight range has been taken advantage of and we open having given up half of yesterday’s 110 point rally. Congratulations to those that patiently placed orders up there. We’d suggest that’s the way to play it for now. 


 

Quote of the dayAll I ask is the chance to prove that money can’t make me happy. Spike Milligan

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