The market in brief:
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- AUD up over a cent on poor US data
- NZD gains 75 cents on the day
- Chinese GDP weaker as expected
- Chinese Industrial Production falls
- ECB upbeat
- US Manufacturing falls sharply
- US Capacity Utilization rate drops
- US Industrial Production disappoints
- NZ Global Dairy Price falls again
Gold at 1202.00 & Brent Crude at $62.90
Market moving events for the next 24 hours:
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- NZ Business Manufacturing
- Australian Unemployment
- US Building Permits
- US Weekly Unemployment Claims
- US Philly Fed Manufacturing
AUD-USD: A busy and volatile last 24 hours ultimately has the Australian Dollar nearly 1% up on the day. The move came as Chinese GDP was just 7%, as expected, but as a triple whammy of US data releases all fell well below market expectations. With this happening on a frequent basis why would the Fed want to hike in June? Today is set to be just as explosive with domestic unemployment data, followed by US Building and Jobless data. On the charts we are now back at Mondays opening levels, as forecast, in the middle of the range with medium term resistance 150 points above and support 175 points below.
AUD-EUR: The Aussie has clawed back some ground here, despite weaker Chinese numbers and as the European Central Bank kept interest rates at just 0.05%, whilst President Draghi put his rose coloured spectacles on to say all is well in the Eurozone. Inflation data is due from the EU tomorrow, so until then domestic influences will dictate direction. Technically we head back towards highs that have held for nearly 2 years, so cannot see that breaking near to medium term and suggest importers take advantage of these spikes.
AUD-GBP: The Aussie has found favour here as well, whilst the Pound makes the more modest gains given the political uncertainty and lack of immediate UK data. On the charts we note price action has become tighter and tighter, confirming our pennant formation, suggesting a more sizeable move should take place prior to the first week of May. Until then resistance and support levels continue to hem us in with both sitting 70 points in either direction.
AUD-NZD: The weaker Chinese data hit the Aussie the hardest seeing the Tasman Cross drop, however most of those gains have been erased with another -3.8% fall in dairy prices over the month. That read was on the back of a more than -10% drop prior. Technically we favour a re-test of the range that held for all of last week, 75 points above.
Quote of the day: Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway. John Wayne
