The market in brief:
- AUD recovers most of Asian session losses
- NZD not so lucky
- Australian Home Loans disappoint
- Chinese inflation just above expectations
- UK Manufacturing up as forecast
- Canadian Unemployment holds at 6.8%
- Gold at 1207.50 & Brent Crude at $58.00
Market moving events for the next 24 hours:
- Chinese Trade Balance
AUD-USD: The Australian Dollar gradually fell throughout Fridays early session as importers took advantage of relative highs and as there are no expected catalysts to push the currency onto higher ground near term. There was however a small bounce as we closed for the weekend that ensured the range was held. Today’s focus is on Chinese Trade Balance numbers that are expected to show a diminishing surplus and should see the Aussie pressured. In fact until Thursday’s domestic unemployment data there we will continue to look offshore for direction and cannot see any reason a real upturn to price action. Importers may wish to target last week’s highs 75 points above, whilst those buying AUD and can wait a while can place orders at the bottom of the range 150 points below.
AUD-EUR: Apologies for the broken record but “the Euro was sold again” and recorded its worst weekly performance for 3.5 years as the Greek issues rumble on with no final resolution in sight. There is no EU data set to come this week, except for the European Central Bank’s meeting on Wednesday evening, so we expect the pressure to continue at least until then and perhaps more so after that event. On the charts we sit just shy of resistance that has held since June 2013, but do expect that to hold for now given the AUD looking weaker elsewhere.
AUD-GBP: This pair traded a tight range with just a slight upward bias, despite UK Manufacturing recording a +0.4% gain on the month that followed a -0.6% fall in the prior read. Looking ahead UK inflation is due tomorrow, which is expected to be +0.0% as per last month, followed by Fridays Average Earnings and Unemployment figures. Nonetheless the main interest is in next month’s election and the political games that are playing out. On the charts we’d expect this pair to continue bouncing off the hugging the upward trend line resistance which is just a handful of points away.
AUD-NZD: The Tasman Cross has held an amazing 70 point range for the last 4 days and as mentioned last week appears stuck between a rock and a hard place. Any signs of upswing are curtailed, however the parity levels below are ensuring any sell offs are shallow. NZ Business Confidence is due tomorrow and the Global Dairy Price on Thursday evening. We may well see a test of each side of the range, but cannot favour a break just yet.
Subscribe to this report: