12th March 2015 – Daily Currency Market Report.

The market in brief:

  • AUD sinks but recovers towards the close
  • NZD sinks but rallies higher on RBNZ
  • RBNZ keeps rates on hold and remains neutral
  • Chinese Industrial Production slows
  • UK Manufacturing Production shrinks
  • Gold at $1,152 & Crude Oil down 4% to $56.66

Market moving events for the next 24 hours:

  • Australian Unemployment
  • US Retail sales
  • US Weekly Unemployment Claims
  • BoE Governor carney speaks

AUD-USD: The Australian Dollar opens 40 points lower, having been 80 points down and at fresh 6 years lows at one stage overnight. Weaker than expected Chinese data and simply a stronger US Dollar contributed to the sentiment. Domestic unemployment figures and US retail Sales are our focus over the next 24 hours. We remain in hugely oversold territory so do not see too much further downside in the short term, perhaps only 25 points. Importers may well target a recovery around 150 points above.

AUD-EUR: The Euro has weakened 11 out of the last 13 sessions and now sees us knocking at resistance that has held since mid-2013. Focus will be on domestic and Chinese numbers as there is no major data due from the EU until the third week of March. Technically we have to respect these highs and we’d suggest importers take advantage up here. Exporters should place orders for any correction lower to jump in to in.

AUD-GBP:  Disappointing UK Manufacturing has this pair correcting higher and away from our forecast support levels of the upward channel. Interestingly the market has also shied away from the psychological 50pence / 2.00 area although we feel that that will surely be tested again once the UK election is done come May. On the charts we are in the middle of the range and a good opportunity for importers to take advantage of.

AUD-NZD: The Tasman cross edged 60 point higher yesterday, but has fallen away upon the RBNZ announcement in which they have mentioned the possibility of higher interest rates. However price action has been halted at near term support and looks to be forming a base for a recovery, especially should the Australian Unemployment figures come in as expected.

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