10th June – Daily Currency Market Report.

The market in brief:

  • ·      AUD in a holding pattern
  • ·      NZD closes flat
  • ·      Australian Business Confidence up
  • ·      Chinese Inflation down
  • ·      Greek PM offeres a new proposal
  • ·      UK Trade Deficit narrows
  • ·      US JOLTS Job Openings up
  • ·      Gold to $1,177 & Brent Crude at $64.88

Market moving events for the next 24 hours:

  • ·      Australian Consumer Sentiment
  • ·      RBA Governor Stevens speech
  • ·      UK Manufacturing Production
  • ·      BoE Governor Carney’s speech

AUDUSD: The Australian Dollar has been held in a range as the market waits for some defining news from the US and Europe. Domestic Business Confidence printed higher, although Chinese Inflation fell back and so kept the currency where it is. Today’s focus will be on RBA Governors speech and his thoughts on the currency and economy going forward. On the charts the prior lows continue to hold and we see that to be the case for another 24 hours at least. Any surprising hawkishness from the Governor will be quickly taken advantage of, so we suggest placing orders. 
AUDEUR: The 3 month lows held although the recent downtrend remains firmly in place as news came that Greek PM Tsipras presented a new budget, ahead of tonight’s meeting in Brussels. There is no data set to be released that can distract us so we should be in for a very interesting latter part of the week. Governor Steven’s speech may well set the tone here, so we suggest preparing orders early so as to take advantage of a potential break of the range. 

AUDGBP: The Pound pushed lower still, despite the positive local data, as the UK Trade Deficit narrowed. There is still a bit of a concern with the UK economy and the potential deflationary risks, however any upturn in next week’s inflation data should spark a serious move. BoE Governor Carney speaks tonight and his (normally positive) comments will be closely watched as will the manufacturing numbers. On the charts we continue to bang away at support and feel it’s only a matter of time before we break through.

AUDNZD: The return of Australian CFO’s and market makers to their desks instantly saw the Tasman cross rally, however the move was then countered by their Antipodean cousins and the cross fell away and closed with a small loss. We shouldn’t break too far away from this range as we wait for the RBNZ tomorrow morning and the ever increasing chances of a cut to the OCR, for the first time since March 2011. Whatever the outcome we will see huge volatility given the split in the market as to whether they go now or next month. We’d suggest placing a couple of orders in for now and a “flyer” for future exposure just in case. Call us to discuss suitable levels.

Quote of the day: It is not so much our friends’ help that helps us, but the confidence of their help. Epicurus


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