Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.
Overnight U.S equities strung a third session of gains together which has helped AUD to hold onto gains made through the week. In fact both U.S and European stocks moved higher with the best performers being the French CAC which was up 1.15%, while in the U.S the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way, up 1.09% at the close. Oil prices also rose moving close to US$50 a barrel as Saudi Arabia talked up export cuts and a WTI target of US$80 a barrel.
Economic data released locally yesterday showed that seasonally adjusted the trade balance figure shrunk marginally as imports grew quicker than exports, which is a head scratcher given the low AUD that would normally boost exports of tourism, education and commodities and shrink imports in favour of local products. Overall a low AUD is actually a form of stimulation for the Australian economy and will be welcomed by the RBA and exporters across Australia.
Where to from here:
So where is the AUD headed this year? That’s the million dollar question and the trust is no one really knows. Its been well documented in books like Future Bubble that expert predictions usually fail, however that certainly hasn’t stopped the media asking economists and traders for their expert opinions on ‘where the market is heading this year?’ The best answer is ‘I don’t know’ but if you really need an answer then the mean forecast of where AUD will be at the end of the year is around 0.7150 – this comes directly from an article which asked something like 30 economists to give their predictions, if you take the average of all of these you end up around 0.7150.
AUD EXCHANGE RATES:
AUD/USD – 0.7108
AUD/GBP – 0.5582
AUD/EUR – 0.6209
AUD/NZD – 1.0588
AUD/JPY – 77.342
USD/BTC – $3,985
All Ords (XAO) – 5,783
Gold – A$1,800/oz
Silver – A$21.94/oz
WTI – US$49.91/barrel
DATA RELEASES TODAY:
AUD – Building Approvals m/m at 11.30am
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Senior Corporate FX Dealer
Phone Patrick – 0431 278 632
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