Market Update – 7th August 2018 – Cash Rate Likely To Be Held Steady Again At 1.5%

We finished last week with local retail sales figures which beat expectations and provided a bit of bullish momentum for the Aussie dollar and retail outlets through Friday, however as has become the case recently that bullish momentum couldn’t be maintained and AUD ended up about where it started the day.

Yesterday was the annual Bank Holiday in Australia – as such AUD payments would have been delayed until today. The holiday was traditionally for bank employees to take a break but more recently related finance companies which rely on the banks have also taken holidays on this day.

The monthly (except January) RBA Cash Rate and Rate Statement is due out at 2.30pm this afternoon with no change in rates from 1.5% expected. The reason for the likely no change is that the housing market is struggling too much for the RBA to lump potential further repayments on investors and owners at this stage in the cycle. Additionally, as we saw a few weeks back, inflation isn’t quite deep enough into the 2-3% range that the RBA desires.

As a side note AUD/GBP and AUD/EUR have rallied quite nicely lately and so clients wishing to purchase GBP or EURO might be well served to do this while rates are good.

AUD EXCHANGE RATES:

AUD/USD – 0.7365

AUD/GBP – 0.5684

AUD/EUR – 0.6370

AUD/NZD – 1.0973

AUD/JPY – 82.051

USD/BTC – $7,432

OTHER MARKETS: 

All Ords (XAO) – 6,359

Gold – A$1,634/oz

Silver –  A$20.71/oz

WTI – US$68.29/barrel

DATA RELEASES TODAY:

AUD – RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate at 2.30pm

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Patrick Downes

Senior Corporate FX Dealer

Phone Patrick – 0431 278 632 

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