U.S equities didn’t trade overnight as the country observed a National Day of Mourning following the death of former President George H. W. Bush. U.S stock futures finished the public holiday flat and our local market is expected to open flat this morning. In the absence of U.S trade and a poor GDP figure yesterday morning, the AUD fell away and is off against all the major currencies. GDP came in below estimates at 0.3% versus the anticipated headline figure of 0.6%. Base metal prices including iron ore and oil continued their rally with Zinc and Copper the best performers.
More local data out today with retail sales and trade balance numbers at 11.30am. Retail sales have been declining over the past few years as a result of high indebtedness and its hard to see this trend abating given rising interest rates and falling house prices. As a result estimates are that retail sales wouldn’t have grown much more than 0.3% in the last month – weak retail sales numbers could see the AUD dragged lower, while a strong number would be encouraging for the RBA.
Trade Balance numbers are released at the same time as retail sales with the trade balance likely to have grown again as a result of a low Aussie Dollar and strong export activity particularly in the metals space.
AUD EXCHANGE RATES:
AUD/USD – 0.7239
AUD/GBP – 0.5677
AUD/EUR – 0.6377
AUD/NZD – 1.0510
AUD/JPY – 82.009
USD/BTC – $3,712
OTHER MARKETS:
All Ords (XAO) – 5,749
Gold – A$1,702/oz
Silver – A$19.96/oz
WTI – US$53.05/barrel
DATA RELEASES TODAY:
AUD – Retail Sales m/m & Trade Balance at 11.30am
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Patrick Downes
Senior Corporate FX Dealer
Phone Patrick – 0431 278 632
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