Market Update – 6th November 2018 – AUD Declines As U.S Mourns Passing Of George H. W. Bush

U.S equities didn’t trade overnight as the country observed a National Day of Mourning following the death of former President George H. W. Bush. U.S stock futures finished the public holiday flat and our local market is expected to open flat this morning. In the absence of U.S trade and a poor GDP figure yesterday morning, the AUD fell away and is off against all the major currencies. GDP came in below estimates at 0.3% versus the anticipated headline figure of 0.6%. Base metal prices including iron ore and oil continued their rally with Zinc and Copper the best performers.

More local data out today with retail sales and trade balance numbers at 11.30am. Retail sales have been declining over the past few years as a result of high indebtedness and its hard to see this trend abating given rising interest rates and falling house prices. As a result estimates are that retail sales wouldn’t have grown much more than 0.3% in the last month – weak retail sales numbers could see the AUD dragged lower, while a strong number would be encouraging for the RBA.

Trade Balance numbers are released at the same time as retail sales with the trade balance likely to have grown again as a result of a low Aussie Dollar and strong export activity particularly in the metals space.

AUD EXCHANGE RATES:

AUD/USD – 0.7239

AUD/GBP – 0.5677

AUD/EUR – 0.6377

AUD/NZD – 1.0510

AUD/JPY – 82.009

USD/BTC – $3,712

OTHER MARKETS:

All Ords (XAO) – 5,749

Gold – A$1,702/oz

Silver –  A$19.96/oz

WTI – US$53.05/barrel

DATA RELEASES TODAY:

AUD – Retail Sales m/m & Trade Balance at 11.30am