Market Update – 4th March 2019 – Trump, China Close To A Deal?

Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.

Bloomberg Leads With U.S, China Close To Trade Deal:

I was off last week, but I didn’t miss too much. The AUD is continuing to sea-saw around the 0.7000-0.7200 level vs. the Greenback as negotiations between Trump and China near conclusion and Australia gets ready to elect Bill Shorten as the next Prime Minister…perhaps a little early to call, but it’s obvious from a look at the polls and recent departures within the LNP that Shorten will probably be our next Prime Minister and sixth this decade. The GBP has gone on an absolute tear in the past fortnight gaining as much as 3 cents or 6% vs. the Aussie Dollar as Brexit delays continue and a possible new referendum is considered by voters. Watch this space, certainly more to come out of the UK and Brexit this year.

Bunch Of Local Data:

We get a raft of local economic data out this morning, 50% of which relates to the housing market with the rest being Company Operating Profits and ANZ Jobs Ads numbers. The housing market is continuing to falter with losses right across the board and now seeping into regional areas. All up, Melbourne and Sydney are now down 11.5% since their 2017 peaks with most forecasts on consensus that we’ll see continued falls through 2019 and 2020. With that said Job’s numbers have been robust and the pillar of our economy with mining lately, so the RBA will be hoping to see that trend continue this morning.

AUD EXCHANGE RATES:

AUD/USD – 0.7076

AUD/GBP – 0.5330

AUD/EUR – 0.6214

AUD/NZD – 1.0379

AUD/JPY – 79.205

OTHER MARKETS:

All Ords (XAO) – 6,273

Gold – A$1,821/oz

Silver –  A$21.38/oz

WTI – US$55.91/barrel

DATA RELEASES TODAY:

AUD – Building Approvals m/m & Company Operating Profits at 11.30am

AUD – ANZ Jobs Ads & HIA New Home Sales also at 11.30am