Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.
Data released overnight showed an improvement in U.S Consumer confidence and home sales but that didn’t help U.S stocks which lost ground as a result of continued fractured trade negotiations between China and President Trump. The trade war that never end, along with a mixed bag of U.S reporting and a low AUD also gave support to Gold prices with the yellow metal up about 400AUD since late September from $1,600 to just over $2,000 an ounce in AUD terms.
It’s All About Data:
It’s all about data again today and tonight, with the release of Chinese Manufacturing PMI this morning followed by Aussie CPI figures which are due at 11.30am. Australian quarterly CPI is expected to come in around half a percent which would be a massive improvement on last quarters reading of zero percent. Still at 0.5%, which is 2% annualised, that puts economic growth teetering on the edge of the RBA’s aspirational target range of between 2-3 percent.
Later this evening we will see preliminary U.S jobs numbers followed by the all important U.S Fed Funds Rate and FOMC Statement. Expectations are high that the U.S Fed will do Trump’s bidding and lower the cash rate by a quarter percent from 2.5% to 2.25%. As a result of these assumptions of a rate cut from the Fed, expect volatility tonight and perhaps even a stock market rally if Jerome Powell is bearish enough and throws in a few comments that suggest further rate cuts or stimulus are on the cards.
AUD/USD fell another half percent overnight, while the other AUD crosses were somewhat mixed. More volatility is expected over the next 24 hours, tread with caution.
AUD EXCHANGE RATES:
AUD/USD – 0.6842
AUD/GBP – 0.5624
AUD/EUR – 0.6130
AUD/NZD – 1.0360
AUD/JPY – 74.333
All Ords (XAO) – 6,928
Gold – A$2,081/oz
Silver – A$24.09/oz
WTI – US$58.29/barrel
DATA RELEASES TODAY:
CNY – Manufacturing PMI at 11.00am
AUD – CPI q/q at 11.30am
USD – Prelim ADP Non-Farm Payrolls at 10.15pm
USD – Federal Funds Rate at 4.00am
Sign up for a Compass account today and access some of the most competitive rates in the business and arguably the best service.
Senior Corporate FX Dealer
Phone Patrick – 0431 278 632
DISCLOSURE AND DISCLAIMER – GENERAL ADVICE WARNING
The information provided in this report has been prepared without taking into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether our products are appropriate for you and read the FSG and PDS which are available on this website.
This report and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person.
All references to prices, amounts and currency are in Australian dollars unless otherwise noted.
This report is provided for Australian residents only and is not intended for use by residents of any other country.