2nd June 2015 – Technical Outlook

AUD/USD 

FROM HERE: cautiously buy around 0.7600 to test upside towards 0.7700

BUT: below 0.7551 should trigger major stops with next major support line at around 0.7410

COMMENT:  calling buy based on bullish divergence seen on 4 hrly & 8 hrly charts but rates annoucement may surprise all.

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

Tues 11:30am AUD    Current Account -10.9B (F)  -9.6B  (P) 
  2:30pm “    Cash Rate 2.00% 2.00%
  ”  “    RBA Rate Statement    

 cT_cs_1000262_AUDUSD_2015-06-02_10-33-11

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
0.7551 0.7575 0.7594 0.7610 0.7773 0.7847 0.7940

 

USD/JPY 

FROM HERE: stay long or buy on dips around 124.00 – 124.50 to target 125.70 for start

BUT:  square up and re-assess below 123.80

COMMENT:  Bears happy to stay on sideline as bulls stampede targetting 2002 level of 125.70

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

Tues 11.30am JPY    Average Cash Earnings y/y (med impact) 0.4% (F) 0.0% (P) 
Wed  12:00am  USD    FOMC Member Brainard Speaks (med impact)    
   “  “    Factory Orders m/m (med impact) 0.0% 2.1% 

 cT_cs_1000262_USDJPY_2015-06-02_10-34-56

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
122.75 123.30 123.84 124.86 125.70 126.21 127.00

EUR/USD 

FROM HERE:  sell around 1.0942 to target 1.0880 (Fib level) for start. Then 1.0785 (50% Fib)

BUT:  re-assess above 1.0965

COMMENT:  the pair needs to go below 1.0800 before one can agressively sell further.

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

 Tues 5:00pm EUR    Spanish Unemployment Change  (med impact)        -115.4k (F)       -118.9k (P)
  5:55pm  ”     German Unemployment Change  (med impact) -10k -8k
  7:00pm ”     Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y  (med impact)  0.7% 0.6%

 cT_cs_1000262_EURUSD_2015-06-02_10-36-11

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
1.0785 1.0818 1.0886 1.0921 1.1942 1.1035 1.1065

 

GBP/USD 

FROM HERE: remain short and sell 1.5260 to target 1.5176 then 1.5087

BUT: above 1.5350 may trigger stops which may drive it to next resistance level of 1.5384

COMMENT:  can’t see any reason to buy Cable at the moment STILL

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

 Tues  6:30pm GBP    Construction PMI 55.1  (F)  54.2  (P) 
  “ “    Net Lending to Individuals m/m  (med impact) 2.3B 3.1B

 cT_cs_1000262_GBPUSD_2015-06-02_10-37-14

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
1.5041 1.5087 1.5176 1.5200 1.5260 1.5336 1.5387

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