Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.
AUD Slides:
Weak investor sentiment on Friday night and through the weekend has pushed the AUD lower with the local currency down against all the major currencies. AUD/USD lost the most ground falling as much as 1% since Thursday afternoon. RBA Governor Lowe speaks this afternoon and is likely to start telegraphing a rate cut at the next RBA meeting on October 1st (two weeks from today). In fact the market is already pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut on October 1st. The reason for the further cut to interest rates, which would take local interest below 1%, is simply persistent weak economic data right across the board.
Equities Flat:
U.S stocks finished the session flat, while European stocks lost as much as 1.00%, with the French CAC the worst performer down 1.05% at the close of trade. Looking across markets more broadly and its interesting to note that the Shanghai/Shenzhen 300 and ASX 200 are the best performing markets in over the past year, up 14% and 9% respectively over the past 12 months. In contrast U.S equities are up a measly 1-2% over the same period.
As mentioned above RBA Governor Lowe speaks tonight around 8.00pm while U.S Consumer Confidence is due around midnight AEST.
AUD EXCHANGE RATES:
AUD/USD – 0.6745
AUD/GBP – 0.5416
AUD/EUR – 0.6131
AUD/NZD – 1.0733
AUD/JPY – 72.545
OTHER MARKETS:
All Ords (XAO) – 6,861
Gold – A$2,246/oz
Silver – A$27.52/oz
WTI – US$58.28/barrel
DATA RELEASES TODAY:
AUD – RBA Gov Lowe Speaks at 7.55pm
USD – CB Consumer Confidence at midnight
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Patrick Downes
Senior Corporate FX Dealer
Phone Patrick – 0431 278 632
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