Market Update – 23rd January 2019 – Positive Sentiment Turns Negative As Trade Tensions Reheat

Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.

Positive Turns Negative:

The positive sentiment which has dominated markets in the early part of the year appears to have slipped away overnight as China and the U.S again came to loggerheads over trade and IP. The negative risk sentiment saw a sell off in both equities and commodities including oil and copper while Gold not surprisingly surged. The AUD fared just as poorly and is down over half a percent right across the board.

World Economic Forum Kicks Off:

No economic data was released overnight, however the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland kicked off overnight with impassioned speeches from a diverse range of speakers which included David Attenborough and NZ PM Jacinda Ardern. What comes of the WEF this year remains to be seen but it has too often become a gab fest with no real substance or follow through after the event ends.

AUD Complacency Is Dangerous: 

As mentioned above markets look decidedly more shaky today with volatility still wreaking havoc, those who took advantage of the AUD recently have done well, certainly you cannot become too complacent these days with forecasts from some Aussie economists for two rate cuts from the RBA this year. My personal opinion is two rate cuts are ridiculous and would only cause the AUD to crash and house prices to potentially start to run hot again. The economy while only slowly chugging along IS being supported by the lower AUD and therefore probably doesn’t warrant any further rate cuts.


AUD/USD – 0.7087

AUD/GBP – 0.5463

AUD/EUR – 0.6236

AUD/NZD – 1.0558

AUD/JPY – 77.579

USD/BTC – $3,572


All Ords (XAO) – 5,924

Gold – A$1,804/oz

Silver –  A$21.53/oz

WTI – US$53.03/barrel


All – World Economic Forum in Davos

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Patrick Downes

Senior Corporate FX Dealer

Phone Patrick – 0431 278 632 



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