Market Update – 1st October 2019 – AUD Stable Ahead Of October RBA Meeting & PRC Celebrates 70 Years

Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.

AUD Stable:

Equities in Europe and the U.S mostly gained overnight while the Aussie Dollar remained unusually stable vs the other major currencies. All the AUD crosses are at or around the same levels as mid last week with little action on Thursday, Friday or yesterday. The next major market moving data announcement is today with the RBA Cash Rate decision at 2.30pm. Expectations are that we’ll see another 25 basis point cut to interest rates however the market appears a little divided with around 20% of economists thinking the RBA might wait before cutting again – I tend to follow this line of thinking and think another rate cut is not a forgone conclusion this afternoon. If the RBA don’t cut today, then you’d have to think AUD should bounce quite strongly, while a cut probably see’s AUD/USD test the 0.66 level again.

Other than the RBA rate decision today we also have U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI due this evening around midnight AEST. This should show little change.

PRC Marks 70 Years:

Today, in China also marks 70 years of the PRC and it’s a week long celebration over there, similar to the likes of Chinese New Year, where banks are not open and the vast majority of the working population goes on holidays to mark the special day. As a result expect payment delays.

AUD EXCHANGE RATES:

AUD/USD – 0.6720

AUD/GBP – 0.5458

AUD/EUR – 0.6163

AUD/NZD – 1.0752

AUD/JPY – 72.635

OTHER MARKETS:

All Ords (XAO) – 6,800

Gold – A$2,181/oz

Silver –  A$25.19/oz

WTI – US$54.17/barrel

DATA RELEASES TODAY:

AUD – RBA Rate Decision at 2.30pm

USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI at midnight