Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.
AUD Falls Vs. Pound:
No report from me yesterday, but the AUD has retreated since Tuesday, falling around half a percent vs. the Greenback but more significantly around 2% vs. the British Pound as a Brexit deal inches closer. The latest on Brexit suggests a deal that would allow Britain to leave the European Union without too many concessions is “tantalisingly close”. Negotiations on the last portion of the deal, how to treat Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit Europe, remains the most divisive issue and something likely to require further discussions. In the meantime, the British Pound could continue to make gains vs. the AUD after a long period of declines that began way back in the middle of 2015 when AUD/GBP was trading around 0.4500. We will continue to monitor this.
Local employment data is due out this morning at 11.30am with the latest estimates suggesting no change to the unemployment rate around 5.3% and 15,000 new jobs created. After reaching a low of 4.9% in March the unemployment rate has been steadily rising despite positive jobs growth. The problem though and the reason for the rise in the unemployment number appears to be this switch to the ‘gig’ economy and part-time positions, which has become far more prevalent over the the past few years. Lower interest rates should continue to support jobs growth ‘in theory’ however recent history suggests low interest rates are not having the same impact as they did in the past and this could be due to the extremely low level of interest rates across the globe.
AUD EXCHANGE RATES:
AUD/USD – 0.6723
AUD/GBP – 0.5238
AUD/EUR – 0.6070
AUD/NZD – 1.0712
AUD/JPY – 73.140
All Ords (XAO) – 6,843
Gold – A$2,204/oz
Silver – A$25.74/oz
WTI – US$53.04 barrel
DATA RELEASES TODAY:
AUD – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate at 11.30am
GBP – Retail Sales m/m at 7.30pm
USD – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 11.30pm
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Senior Corporate FX Dealer
Phone Patrick – 0431 278 632
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