Market Update – 17th October 2019 – AUD Falls Vs. Pound, But Equities Looking Strong

Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.

AUD Falls Vs. Pound: 

No report from me yesterday, but the AUD has retreated since Tuesday, falling around half a percent vs. the Greenback but more significantly around 2% vs. the British Pound as a Brexit deal inches closer. The latest on Brexit suggests a deal that would allow Britain to leave the European Union without too many concessions is “tantalisingly close”. Negotiations on the last portion of the deal, how to treat Northern Ireland in a post-Brexit Europe, remains the most divisive issue and something likely to require further discussions. In the meantime, the British Pound could continue to make gains vs. the AUD after a long period of declines that began way back in the middle of 2015 when AUD/GBP was trading around 0.4500. We will continue to monitor this.

Aussie Employment: 

Local employment data is due out this morning at 11.30am with the latest estimates suggesting no change to the unemployment rate around 5.3% and 15,000 new jobs created. After reaching a low of 4.9% in March the unemployment rate has been steadily rising despite positive jobs growth. The problem though and the reason for the rise in the unemployment number appears to be this switch to the ‘gig’ economy and part-time positions, which has become far more prevalent over the the past few years. Lower interest rates should continue to support jobs growth ‘in theory’ however recent history suggests low interest rates are not having the same impact as they did in the past and this could be due to the extremely low level of interest rates across the globe.

AUD EXCHANGE RATES:

AUD/USD – 0.6723

AUD/GBP – 0.5238

AUD/EUR – 0.6070

AUD/NZD – 1.0712

AUD/JPY – 73.140

OTHER MARKETS:

All Ords (XAO) – 6,843

Gold – A$2,204/oz

Silver –  A$25.74/oz

WTI – US$53.04 barrel

DATA RELEASES TODAY:

AUD – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate at 11.30am

GBP – Retail Sales m/m at 7.30pm

USD – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 11.30pm

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Patrick Downes

Senior Corporate FX Dealer

Phone Patrick – 0431 278 632 

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