17th April 2015 – Technical Outlook

AUD/USD 

FROM HERE:  buy around 0.7737 to target 0.7821 then 0.7846 (ultimately 0.7937)

BUT: below 0.7720 would dampen bulls determination and below 0.7670 might kill it

COMMENT: goal is to reach 0.7937 before 0.7670. Trade with this in mind

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

Fri   AUD no data expected   (F)   (P) 
  11:30pm  USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
Sat 1:00am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.8 93.0

 cT_cs_1000262_AUDUSD_2015-04-17_08-53-41

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
0.7641 0.7672 0.7737 0.7786 0.7821 0.7846 0.7937

 


USD/JPY 

FROM HERE: same as yesterday: remian short and sell around 119.46 to target 118.73 then 118.32

BUT: square all above 120.00 and re-assess

COMMENT: 118.70 looks well supported but if it breaks it will also trigger stops – add to shorts here.

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

Fri 4:00pm  JPY  Consumer Confidence  (low impact) 41.4   (F) 40.7  (P) 
    ALL G20 Meetings    

 cT_cs_1000262_USDJPY_2015-04-17_09-34-45

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
117.98 118.32 118.73 119.01 119.46 120.16 120.83


EUR/USD 

FROM HERE: buy at market or around 1.0720 to target 1.0817 and above

BUT: low risk takers should square up below 1.0700 and re-assess but shouldn’t see below 1.0620 today

COMMENT: will remain bullish for next 24hrs as long as 1.0620 holds

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

 Fri 7:00pm EUR  Current Account (low impact) 29.1B (F)    29.4B  (P)
  8:00pm EUR Final CPI y/y -0.1% -0.1% 

cT_cs_1000262_EURUSD_2015-04-17_09-15-16

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
1.0618 1.0653 1.0711 1.0764 1.0787 1.0817 1.0886

 


GBP/USD 

FROM HERE: remain long and buy around 1.4885 to target 1.5000 and above

BUT: square up and re-assess if 1.5000 can’t be broken or if below 1.4800

COMMENT: not totally bullish unless 1.5000 is broken convincingly. Where it is, is still range trading.

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

 Fri 7:30pm  GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 1.8 (F)  1.8  (P) 
    GBP Claimant Count Change -29.1k -30.0k 
    GBP Unemployment Rate 5.6%  5.7% 

cT_cs_1000262_GBPUSD_2015-04-17_09-27-54

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
1.4630 1.4725 1.4885 1.4931 1.4979 1.5025 1.5165
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