Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.
AUD/USD Edges Lower:
The Aussie Dollar has moved lower vs. the USD & Japanese Yen overnight while Gold and Oil rallied amid tensions in the Persian Gulf following two tanker fires near the south coast of Iran. The immediate aftermath has seen the Trump Administration (who we know dislikes Iran) point fingers which has raised a bit of uncertainty and fear that an escalation of Iranian/U.S tensions could lead to a full blown conflict. The Gold price which is a barometer for risk aversion has hit it’s highest level ever against the AUD at just under A$2,000 an ounce.
U.S & European Equities:
Despite the concerns in the middle east, U.S and European stock markets rallied with the Nasdaq and German DAX leading the way up 0.57% and 0.44% respectively. The solid gains should flow onto our markets today with ASX200 futures suggesting a positive start up 0.15%.
A de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and resolution to Trump’s trade war with China could all provide positive catalysts for the AUD and markets more broadly, however the market has been saying this since early 2018 when Trump first started talking Trade Wars.
A raft of Chinese economic data is due out today, around lunchtime, while U.S retail sales numbers are due this evening around 10.30pm AEST. Expectations are for Chinese Industrial Production to remain steady, while a lift in Retail Sales is expected in both the Chinese and U.S data releases today.
AUD EXCHANGE RATES:
AUD/USD – 0.6885
AUD/GBP – 0.5422
AUD/EUR – 0.6101
AUD/NZD – 1.0506
AUD/JPY – 74.636
All Ords (XAO) – 6,619
Gold – A$1,943/oz
Silver – A$21.59/oz
WTI – US$52.37/barrel
DATA RELEASES TODAY:
CNY – Industrial Production & Retail Sales at 12.00pm
USD – Core Retail Sales m/m at 10.30pm
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