10th April 2015 – Technical Outlook

AUD/USD 

FROM HERE: cautiously sell around 0.7720-30 area to target 0.7660 then 0.7630

BUT: can consider reversing and go long if 0.7760 breaks but with tight stops

COMMENT: bearish divergence emerging on hourly & 4 hourlyas bulls run out of steam so show caution.

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

Fri 12:30pm  AUD Home Loans m/m  (medium impact) 3.5% (F)  -3.5% (P) 
  12:30pm AUD CPI y/y 1.3%  1.4%
  12:30pm AUD PPI y/y  (med impact) -4.8% -4.8%

 

cT_cs_1000262_AUDUSD_2015-04-10_08-18-04-1

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
0.7580 0.7630 0.7658 0.7695 0.7734 0.7765 0.7800

 


USD/JPY 

FROM HERE: buy at market or around 120.23 to target 120.72 then maybe above 121.00

BUT: below 120.00 may see it back to range trade between 119 – 120. Stops builidng up below 119.

COMMENT: strong US close should see momentum (bullish) continuing over next 24hrs but 121.00 hard to crack.

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

Fri 10:50am JPY  Bank Lending y/y (low impact)  (F)  2.5% (P)  
   11:30pm USD FOMC Member Lacker Speaks (med impact)    
  11:30pm USD Import Prices m/m  (med impact) -0.4% 0.4%

 cT_cs_1000262_USDJPY_2015-04-10_08-35-52-1

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
119.42 119.64 120.23 120.57 120.72 121.06 121.53


EUR/USD 

FROM HERE: cautiously sell around 1.0680 and again around 1.0710 to target 1.0611 and below

BUT: square up and re-assess if 1.0720 breaks

COMMENT: show caution because although very bearish on daily, the 4 hourly shows first sign of reversal (dragonfly)

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

 Fri 5:45pm EUR  French Gov Budget Balance  (low impact)     -9.4B  (P)

cT_cs_1000262_EURUSD_2015-04-10_08-54-58

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
1.0547 1.0578 1.0611 1.0665 1.0680 1.0711 1.0787

GBP/USD 

FROM HERE: sell around 1.4740 to target 1.4683 then 1.4633

BUT: can consdier reversing position to long if 1.4770 breaks with tight stops

COMMENT: remain short as long as market is below 1.4800

NEXT DATA RELEASE: 

 Fri 07:30pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.4% (F) -0.5% (P)  

cT_cs_1000262_GBPUSD_2015-04-10_09-05-20

3rd Support 2nd Support 1st Support SPOT 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 3rd Resistance
1.4600 1.4633 1.4683 1.4713 1.4737 1.4767 1.4800
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